Analysis of inter-country trade flows based on input - output model between Vietnam - EU - China and the United States
24/08/02021 22:19

Abstract: In recent years, the balance of trade in goods (Goods) of Vietnam has always been in surplus after many years, the balance is always in deficit. Many comments were thrilled for that achievement? The study attempts to estimate how the trade flows between the four countries induce to output, value added of each country?

The research used inter - country input - output model for analyzing the effects of trafe flow to economy of each country, especially for Vietnam.

Key Words: Final demand, final product, input, inter, output, value added


In recent years, Vietnam participates in many bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. However, the data on import and export of goods shows that Vietnam always has a trade surplus with the United States, the EU and Japan, while in the relationship with China and South Korea the trade balance is always negative and this trend is increasing. If in 2010, Vietnam's trade deficit from China was 12.5 billion USD, then in 2019, the trade deficit from China would be 34 billion USD, up 2.7 times compared to 2010. For South Korea, in 2010, the trade deficit was with 6.6 billion USD; in 2019 the trade deficit amounted to 27.3 billion USD. The trade surplus between Vietnam and the United States in 2010 was 10.5 billion USD, and in 2019 it was 47 billion USD. The trade surplus with the EU increased from 5 billion USD in 2010 to 26.6 billion USD in 2019 and the trade surplus with Japan also increased. Thus, Vietnam's trade surplus to 2019 with the United States, Japan and the EU is about 74 billion USD and the trade deficit with China and South Korea is about 61.3 billion USD.

According to estimates from Vietnam General statistics office, in 2020, exports and imports to the EU will decrease slightly (exports will decrease by about 15% and imports from the EU decrease by about 2%), but exports to the US in 2020 compared to 2019 increase very strongly ( 26%) but imports from the United States decreased by about 5%., So the trade surplus with the United States in 2020 compared to 2019 increased by about 35% (from 46.9 billion USD to 63.1 billion USD); Meanwhile, the trade deficit with China and South Korea in 2020 compared to 2019 increase by about 3% (from 61.3 billion USD to 63 billion USD). Thus, the trade surplus between Vietnam and the United States is equivalent to the trade deficit between Vietnam and China + Korea. Visually it can be seen that the export of these products does not spread much to Vietnam's production and value-added but to the production and value-added of the countries where Vietnam imports raw materials as intermediate input. This study tries to find, quantify evidence for this problem and give some policy implications to restructure the economy so that the economy develops harmoniously and sustainably.

The products that Vietnam exports to the US and the EU are basically outsourcing products   (phones and components account for about 15% of the total exports of goods to the US) and products for final consumption (eg textiles and footwear accounts for 35% of total merchandise exports to the United States).